Intelligence Collection and Analysis Essay -- Research

Improving the Relationship This paper will detail how I would explain to my policymaker what the psychological barriers are for intelligence collection and analysis. Next, I will provide an argument as to what types of rigors are needed to improve intelligence analysis making it more reliable. Finally, I will persuade the policymaker to support my argument in order to receive more funding in order to implement the type of improvements I have defined. Policymakers need to understand that analysts face psychological obstacles in four key stages of the analytical process, which are making judgments, coordinating judgments, confronting organizational norms, and substantive judgments. (George and Bruce, 2008) When an analyst makes a judgment based on inconclusive evidence the probability that a surprise will occur increases. These judgments are made under some constraint that restricts the analyst from verifying or even receiving further evidence to collaborate or disprove the current judgment. (George and Bruce, 2008) When analysts coordinate judgments with other analysts and managers, other agendas and biases are introduced into the analysis. Analyst need to be informed of the organization’s expectations of the analysis. Substantive judgments occur when an analyst’s ethics force the analyst to ignore the agendas of the policymakers and to be write judgments based on the evidence. (George and Bruce, 2008) All t hese psychological obstacles to sound judgment are clouded by complexity, uncertainty, and secrecy. Cognitive biases are distortions in information processing created by worldview, ideology, or political preference. (George and Bruce, 2008) The mindset of the analyst is the accumulated knowledge of past behav... ...s. Policymakers need to allow additional time, increase analyst-staffing levels, and provide better direction to analysts so that judgments will become sounder. By developing improved communications between the analysts and the policymaker the judgments will be more useful. These improvements are needed to increase the quality and timeliness of judgments. Works Cited George, Roger., Bruce, James. (Eds.). (2008) Analyzing Intelligence: Origins, Obstacles, and Innovations. Washington, D.C.: Georgetown University Press. Heuer, Richards. (1999). Psychology of Intelligence Analysis. Retrieved November 28, 2010 from http://www.dtic.mil/cgibin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA500078&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf ledzapp461. (2005, December 22). Orson Welles Paul Masson Commercial. Retrieved November 29, 2010. From http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpj0t2ozPWY&feature=related Intelligence Collection and Analysis Essay -- Research Improving the Relationship This paper will detail how I would explain to my policymaker what the psychological barriers are for intelligence collection and analysis. Next, I will provide an argument as to what types of rigors are needed to improve intelligence analysis making it more reliable. Finally, I will persuade the policymaker to support my argument in order to receive more funding in order to implement the type of improvements I have defined. Policymakers need to understand that analysts face psychological obstacles in four key stages of the analytical process, which are making judgments, coordinating judgments, confronting organizational norms, and substantive judgments. (George and Bruce, 2008) When an analyst makes a judgment based on inconclusive evidence the probability that a surprise will occur increases. These judgments are made under some constraint that restricts the analyst from verifying or even receiving further evidence to collaborate or disprove the current judgment. (George and Bruce, 2008) When analysts coordinate judgments with other analysts and managers, other agendas and biases are introduced into the analysis. Analyst need to be informed of the organization’s expectations of the analysis. Substantive judgments occur when an analyst’s ethics force the analyst to ignore the agendas of the policymakers and to be write judgments based on the evidence. (George and Bruce, 2008) All t hese psychological obstacles to sound judgment are clouded by complexity, uncertainty, and secrecy. Cognitive biases are distortions in information processing created by worldview, ideology, or political preference. (George and Bruce, 2008) The mindset of the analyst is the accumulated knowledge of past behav... ...s. Policymakers need to allow additional time, increase analyst-staffing levels, and provide better direction to analysts so that judgments will become sounder. By developing improved communications between the analysts and the policymaker the judgments will be more useful. These improvements are needed to increase the quality and timeliness of judgments. Works Cited George, Roger., Bruce, James. (Eds.). (2008) Analyzing Intelligence: Origins, Obstacles, and Innovations. Washington, D.C.: Georgetown University Press. Heuer, Richards. (1999). Psychology of Intelligence Analysis. Retrieved November 28, 2010 from http://www.dtic.mil/cgibin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA500078&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf ledzapp461. (2005, December 22). Orson Welles Paul Masson Commercial. Retrieved November 29, 2010. From http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpj0t2ozPWY&feature=related